Fear (of war) desire (for riches) and technological facts (cheap transport, near cost-free communication) are why globalization will continue. Trade is more productive and, contra Mearsheimer, does in fact make war less likely. When in fact globalization will continue apace and even intensify due to technology and self-interest. Zeihan believes the collapse of globalization will result in reduced trade, even in foodstuffs, leading to famines. Similarly, apparently Zeihan is now predicting famines. I can name no instances where states foreign policies have collapsed or even been severely distorted by demographic constraints, but can name cases where the perceptions of such supposed constraints did lead state's governing factions into foolish policies! Literal nazis believed Germany needed living space "Lebensraum" because of demographic pressure, when in fact Germany was facing demographic decline. Demography does not in fact drive state actions, but the perception of demography does. Zeihan's other flaws are varieties of determinism, principally demographic determinism. The irrational state power may be rational to the governing faction! This may be part of why authors like Zeihan and Mearsheimer discount ideology: it's sometimes irrational, yet often drives international relations.
Zeihan and Mearsheimer ignore ideology: perhaps surprisingly, ideology is in fact a key driver of state relations, so much so that ideology, surprisingly, often drives states into sub-optimal strategies, usually due to factional capture. The stakes (life or death, victory or defeat) are high, so I am compelled to focus on their flaws. He's better than Mearsheimer who is also quite good. Dearer still is truth." Zeihan is a good strategist, though his strategy is sometimes based on disinformation and thus is both opaque and sub-optimal. He's better t As a person, I like and even admire Peter Zeihan. 1 of 5 stars 2 of 5 stars 3 of 5 stars 4 of 5 stars 5 of 5 starsĪs a person, I like and even admire Peter Zeihan.
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